Dubya's Numbers in Doubt

Visiting my daughter in Miami this weekend brought an opportunity to read the wonderful Miami Herald. This Knight Ridder stalwart is always full of interesting and well thoughtout reads. One front page story detailed how Social Security might not be in as bad shape as the Prez thinks. GWB's figures, which he said meant near bankrupcy in 18 years or so, are based on a very low growth rate for the economy, of around 1.8%. The actual growth rate for the US economy since 1950 has been 3.5%, so the fact is that there will be more and more money coming in than GW is predicting, if these trends hold.

Other factors in the Social Security picture are even more important....such as life expectancy. People who retire today are less likely to smoke..."and lord knows what happens if they find a cure for cancer in the next 70 years." But immigration, long a thorn in the GOP side, will also play a part. Some economists base the high growth rate to rising immigration, bring more workers who pay taxes to our shores.